Early estimates put James Gunn's Clayface on course for a $23 million to $33 million domestic opening, a soft start for only the third film in the rebooted DCU slate.
Three films into James Gunn's rebooted DC Universe, the box office math is getting uncomfortable. Clayface, the studio's next release, is tracking for a North American opening somewhere between $23 million and $33 million, according to early estimates reported by Koimoi and sourced to Box Office Pro. That puts it below Supergirl's already disappointing $37.1 million debut from earlier this year, and nowhere close to Superman's franchise-opening $125 million.
For a cinematic universe trying to rebuild trust with audiences after years of DC misfires, this is not the number anyone at Warner Bros wanted to see heading into the final quarter of the year.
Clayface is directed by James Watkins, with Tom Rhys Harries playing Matt Hagen, a movie star whose face is horrifically disfigured and who agrees to an experimental treatment that instead turns his body into living clay. The supporting cast includes Naomi Ackie, David Dencik, Max Minghella and Eddie Marsan. Matt Reeves, who directed The Batman, is on board as a producer, which gives the project some pedigree even if the marketing hasn't translated into buzz. Koimoi reports the film is an English-language remake of a Danish-Dutch original and leans into a Batman villain who has barely been touched on screen before.
The film slots into what Gunn has labelled Chapter One: Gods and Monsters, and it's being positioned as a horror-adjacent release timed just ahead of Halloween, dropping in theatres on October 23.
A pattern, not a one-off
Line up the DCU's villain-centric spin-offs so far and the trend looks shaky. Black Adam opened to $67 million. Joker, back in 2019, pulled in $96.2 million domestically, and even its 2024 sequel Joker 2 managed $37.7 million despite a rocky reception. Clayface's projected ceiling of $33 million would land below all of them, and its floor of $23 million would make it the softest debut of the bunch by some distance.
Supergirl's underperformance was already being read as a warning sign for how much goodwill the DCU actually carries beyond Superman, which remains the only unambiguous hit of the relaunch. If Clayface lands anywhere near these early numbers, that conversation gets louder, and fast.
It's worth remembering these are pre-release estimates, not final numbers, and tracking has a habit of shifting in the final two weeks before a release, especially for genre films that can overperform on word of mouth once reviews land. A body-horror Batman villain story is a tough sell to mainstream superhero audiences on paper, but it's exactly the kind of film that can find its footing if critics respond well.
The real test comes once Clayface actually hits screens on October 23. Until then, these numbers are Hollywood's way of setting expectations low enough that almost anything can be spun as a win.
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