Tom Cruise Digger Box Office Forecast: Warner Lowers Opening

The studio now expects the climate‑drama to earn just $12‑15 million domestically, far below early forecasts, as Cruise takes a risky turn away from action.

Warner Bros. Now says Tom Cruise’s new drama Digger will likely pull in only $12‑15 million in its opening weekend across the U.S. And Canada. The figure is a far cry from the $30 million that early trackers had pencilled in for the star‑driven tentpole.

The shortfall reflects a perfect storm of factors. The film’s budget, originally set at $125 million, has swelled to roughly $180 million, according to trade reports. Add to that a premise that sees Cruise playing a corpulent, grey‑haired mogul whose climate‑impact project goes catastrophically wrong, and the usual action‑fan crowd looks uneasy.

Iñárritu’s ambition is clear. He’s steering the project away from the high‑octane formulas that have kept Cruise bankable for decades, opting instead for a “filmmaker‑centric” showcase that leans into the director’s reputation for gut‑wrenching drama. The cast includes Riz Ahmed, John Goodman and Sandra Hüller, giving the picture a solid ensemble pedigree.

Critics are split. Rotten Tomatoes lists the movie at a middling 50 percent approval, while THR’s David Rooney called the experience “excruciatingly weary” and warned viewers they’ll endure “another eardrum‑shattering hour”. Such polarisation could either fuel curiosity or keep the doors shut.

Warner’s own recent track record adds pressure. 2025’s Oscar‑winning One Battle After Another turned a modest opening into a global multiplier, but it never recouped its hefty cost. 2026’s biggest hit for the studio, Margot Robbie’s Wuthering Heights, managed $84 million domestically on an $80 million slate, a modest success compared with the studio’s string of flops like The Bride!, Supergirl and Practical Magic 2.

The weekend’s real competition isn’t a superhero blockbuster but Amazon MGM’s adaptation of Colleen Hoover’s Verity. With a $40 million budget and a projected $27‑30 million opening, the romance‑thriller is poised to out‑earn Digger by a comfortable margin. Critics have given Verity a 48 percent score, but the star‑power of Anne Hathaway and Dakota Johnson may tip the scales.

Analyst Paul Dergarabedian of Rentrak warned that “expectations shouldn’t be centered around star power alone” when a film like Digger tries to rewrite the Cruise formula. He suggests the movie will be judged on its artistic intent rather than box‑office muscle.

If the picture does manage to snag Oscar buzz, the studio hopes that awards momentum could extend its theatrical life. But with a $180 million outlay, even a respectable multiplier would struggle to break even.

All eyes will turn to Friday’s numbers. Will audiences embrace Cruise’s daring turn, or will the film join the growing list of Warner’s high‑budget misfires? The answer will shape how studios gamble on prestige projects starring megastars in the months ahead.