The IMD confirmed withdrawal on October 3 as the city braces for a sharp spike in October heat after a season that left Mumbai city short on rain and the suburbs with a surplus.
Mumbai's monsoon packed up early this year. The India Meteorological Department announced the withdrawal from parts of Maharashtra, Mumbai included, on Saturday, October 3, a full five days before the usual October 8 date. Only one year in the last quarter century beat it: 2002, when the season wrapped on September 30.
The numbers behind the exit tell an uneven story. Mumbai city ended up 7% below its normal rainfall, logging 1957.1 mm against an expected 2094.5 mm. The suburbs did the opposite, finishing 9% above normal at 2530.5 mm compared to the usual 2318.8 mm. Same city, same season, two different outcomes depending on which side of the Western Express Highway you live on.
Zoom out to the state and the picture turns drier still. Maharashtra as a whole finished 19% below normal this monsoon. Marathwada took the worst of it, down 40%, with Vidarbha close behind at 23% below normal. Konkan-Goa came in 14% short and Madhya Maharashtra 11% short. Every single region in the state landed in deficit.
IMD has traced the shortfall to El Nino conditions building over the Pacific, a pattern the department flagged back in May when it released its seasonal outlook warning of a below-average monsoon. So this isn't a surprise ending. It's the forecast playing out more or less as predicted, just arriving a few days sooner than the calendar says it should.
What comes next is the part Mumbai knows and dreads. An IMD officer told reporters the city should expect what's locally called October heat now that the rains have officially left the building. Saturday morning gave an early preview: Colaba hit a maximum of 37.4°C, which is 5.6°C above normal for this time of year. Santacruz wasn't far off at 36.9°C, itself 4.6°C above normal.
The short-term forecast doesn't offer much relief. Over the next 48 hours, skies are expected to stay mostly clear while the city deals with hot, humid conditions. Daytime highs should hover around 36°C with lows dipping to about 26°C, which in Mumbai terms means sticky days and barely cooler nights.
The withdrawal technically marks the end of monsoon 2026 for the city, but for residents it just means swapping one kind of discomfort for another. No rain, no breeze, just heat climbing back up while the city waits for winter, whenever that decides to show up this year.
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