Runner didn't exactly kick the door down on opening day. Scott Waugh's action comedy, starring Alan Ritchson and Owen Wilson, pulled in $2.5 million on Friday across 2,568 North American screens, landing at number two behind Sandra Bullock's Practical Magic 2, which opened with $13 million and looks set to run away with the weekend.

But here's the thing that's got trade watchers paying attention: the film's CinemaScore. Runner walked away with an A-, which puts it in company with Wrath of Man and The Equalizer, and actually ahead of Nobody 2, The Beekeeper, and Christopher Nolan's Tenet on that particular scorecard. Critics have been kinder than expected too, with a 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, though the audience score there is still sitting under wraps.

The Friday number itself isn't purely organic. Angel Studios had already run preview shows a week before the wide release, and those numbers are baked into the opening-day total. Strip that context out and the real story is a film that's underselling on raw ticket counts while overdelivering on how much people who actually watched it liked it.

That gap between hard numbers and reaction is exactly why projections for the weekend are all over the place. At the current run rate, trackers have Runner pegged for somewhere between $3 million and $6 million across Friday to Sunday. If word of mouth holds and repeat viewing kicks in the way the CinemaScore suggests it might, that ceiling could stretch to $8 million. It debuted a shade ahead of comparable recent openers too, ahead of Brave: The Dark's $930K, Sight's $1.1 million, The Shift's $1.8 million and The Last Rodeo's $2.1 million.

What nobody can say yet is whether any of this adds up to profit. Runner's budget hasn't been made public, so there's no clean way to work out where it needs to land to be called a hit. For a two-hander built around Ritchson as a former soldier and Wilson as his reluctant partner, racing a cartel to deliver medical supplies and save a kid's life, a modest opening with a strong score is the kind of setup studios have turned into sleeper hits before.

It's also a crowded weekend to be counting on legs. Runner released alongside two other newcomers, Practical Magic 2 and The Uprising, and Bullock's sequel with Nicole Kidman isn't going anywhere fast at the top of the chart. Runner will need Saturday and Sunday to hold, not just its Friday number to look decent in isolation.

The real test comes once the full three-day total is in and analysts can measure the drop, or lack of one, against that A- score. If the film is going to prove its opening was soft rather than weak, this weekend is where it has to show it.