CutMirchi's coverage from September and October shows big names still draw crowds, but only when word of mouth, timing and genre line up, while some star vehicles have flopped outright.
Star power alone does not seem to guarantee an opening anymore, though it clearly still helps when the rest of the package is right. Ajay Devgn's Drishyam: The Conclusion and Yash's Toxic opened to enormous numbers on the back of star pull (20, 2), while Akshay Kumar and Saif Ali Khan's Haiwaan collapsed within days despite two established names on the poster (4, 6, 7, 9). At the same time, films with modest star wattage, such as the Kannada sleeper Premada Oorali and the horror reboot Resident Evil, built business almost entirely on word of mouth (23, 12, 13).
When star power still delivers
Some of the strongest openings in this window came directly from star pull. Ajay Devgn's Drishyam: The Conclusion opened to Rs 62.03 crore on its Gandhi Jayanti release, which Rediff's Joginder Tuteja flagged as the actor's career-best day-one number in a run spanning more than 25 years and among the top five opening days for any Hindi film (20). The film went on to collect Rs 174 crore over its opening weekend, more than double what Drishyam 2 managed in the same span (29). Yash's Toxic opened with Rs 101.10 crore net in India on day one alone, a number trade trackers noted used to be a first-weekend target for most films (2). Rajinikanth's Jailer 2 is being projected by trade trackers quoted in Koimoi at an opening day of 66 to 69 crore net, enough to top Coolie's record, even with a trailer that drew a lukewarm response online (21). These cases suggest that when a star's existing fanbase is large enough, an opening can still be secured even before reviews or word of mouth arrive.
When the same star power fails to open a film
Haiwaan is the clearest counter-example in this stretch of coverage. Akshay Kumar and Saif Ali Khan reuniting eighteen years after Tashan should, in theory, have been an event, but advance bookings were tracking below what a two-star cast usually pulls in, with top chains expected to close pre-sales at fewer than 10,000 tickets combined (4). The film opened to Rs 3 crore net, then fell to Rs 2.5 crore and Rs 1.85 crore across the weekend, closing under Rs 8 crore net, and DNA India reported it trailed even Akshay Kumar's own recent misses such as Mission Raniganj, Sarfira and Selfiee (6, 7). By day four it had crashed to Rs 50 lakh, against a reported budget upwards of Rs 100 crore (9). Vijay Deverakonda's case, discussed ahead of Ranabaali's release, is framed even more starkly by Koimoi, which notes his last four theatrical releases add up to just 45% recovery on a 360-crore investment, calling it 'not a dip. That's a collapse' (27). Two established stars, a reunion angle and a built-in audience were not enough for Haiwaan, and trade coverage is treating Ranabaali's opening weekend as a test of whether Vijay Deverakonda still has pull at all (27).
Films without big stars are also opening strongly
Several films without marquee star power have performed well in this window, suggesting other factors can substitute for star pull. Premada Oorali, led by Rangayana Raghu, Shree Raam, Tapaswini Poonaccha and Ramika Shivu, opened to less than Rs 10 lakh on day one but reached roughly Rs 28 crore after thirteen days, a run Pinkvilla describes as happening almost entirely on word of mouth (23). Resident Evil, a Hollywood horror reboot with no A-list Bollywood crossover pull, grew on its second day in India instead of dropping, something trade watchers noted horror reboots don't usually do, and went on to net over Rs 11 crore across its opening weekend (12, 13). It has since broken records in China, with 74% of tickets sold on the day of release there, which Koimoi attributes to strong walk-up demand rather than star-led pre-sales (18). Karthik Subbaraj's Dorothy, led by Keerthy Suresh, nearly doubled its collections from day one to day two in Tamil Nadu after a standing ovation at the Toronto International Film Festival helped build word of mouth before release (15).
Streaming-to-theatre crossovers complicate the picture
Mirzapur The Movie offers a different kind of case. The film opened on the strength of a built-in fanbase from four seasons of the streaming show rather than conventional film stardom, pulling in Rs 132 crore worldwide over its opening weekend and later crossing Rs 200 crore net in India, overtaking 3 Idiots' tally (1, 10). Its lead ensemble, including Pankaj Tripathi, Ali Fazal, Divyenndu, Jitendra Kumar and Ravi Kishan, are not traditionally classed as opening-weekend stars in the Bollywood sense, yet the show's existing audience translated into box office business. Meanwhile Hanuman Ansh, in its tenth week of release, reportedly beat both Dangal and Mirzapur The Movie on day one of its Telugu dub, with Koimoi attributing this to 'a slow burn with legs' built on audience faith rather than star power or critical approval, since reviews were mixed to average (26).
Genre and timing shape outcomes as much as star casting
Comrade Kalyan, led by Sree Vishnu, opened quietly on October 9 with Rs 83 lakh net, a start Telugu Filmibeat called not a blockbuster start, but not a disaster either, driven by a comedy that doesn't rely on spectacle or star power beyond Sree Vishnu's cult following (24). A day later, 123telugu and Telugu360 reported the same film had crossed Rs 4 crore globally on day one and that Day 2 bookings were 'sensational', with word of mouth praising Sree Vishnu's comic timing (25). Prem Keetanu, by contrast, carried no comparable star pull and collapsed fast, opening to just over Rs 1 crore over its weekend and falling 64 percent on its first Monday to Rs 10 lakh, leaving it nowhere close to recovering its reported Rs 3 crore budget (16, 17). Release timing also mattered: Comrade Kalyan benefited from the delay of a rival film and a Diwali window, while Prem Keetanu lost theatres to Drishyam: The Conclusion (24, 16).
What the coverage does not tell us
This analysis draws on about a month of CutMirchi's own published coverage, so it cannot say whether these patterns hold across a full year or across every regional industry equally. The box office figures themselves are trade estimates from trackers such as Sacnilk and Koimoi, and different outlets sometimes disagree on the exact numbers, as seen when DNA India and Pinkvilla gave slightly different weekend totals for Haiwaan (7). Budgets for films such as Haiwaan are described in the coverage as unofficial, with 'nobody connected to Haiwaan' putting a confirmed number on costs (9). Marketing spend, screen counts, release-date clashes and audience sentiment on social media are mentioned in individual cases but are not tracked systematically enough across films in this coverage to isolate star power as a single cause of success or failure. The release tracker data shows how many films were released across languages in this period but does not break down which depended on star casts, so the tracker alone cannot settle the question either.
What to watch
Ranabaali's opening weekend is explicitly framed by Koimoi as a test of whether Vijay Deverakonda still carries box office clout, alongside Rashmika Mandanna, whose post-pandemic India haul is reported to be set to cross 5,000 crore by year-end (27). Jailer 2's trailer has split fan reaction online even as trade trackers continue to project a record Kollywood opening day for Rajinikanth (21). Nani's The Paradise is being discussed by trade circles, per 123telugu, as potentially his biggest opening ever, with the possibility of pushing his career total past Rs 200 crore for the first time (11). Anne Hathaway's Verity is tracking for a $30 million to $40 million domestic opening in the US according to Box Office Pro estimates, a figure framed against her mixed 2026 so far (8). And Comrade Kalyan's own run is described as hinging on word of mouth as it heads into competition from Jailer 2 during the Diwali period (24).
Sources
- Mirzapur The Movie Grosses Rs 132 Crore Over Opening Weekend, reported from Google News · World entertainment, Pinkvilla, Google News · Bollywood
- Yash's Toxic Closes In On Rs 340 Crore Worldwide By Day 12, reported from Filmibeat Kannada - Main Feed, Google News · World entertainment, Google News · Malayalam & Kannada cinema
- Haiwaan Advance Sales Point To A Sub-Rs 5 Crore Opening, reported from Bollywood Hungama - Box Office Analysis, Bollywood Hungama - Main Feed
- Haiwaan Drops To Rs 2.5 Crore On Day 2, Trails Akshay's Worst Flops, reported from Google News · World entertainment, DNA India Entertainment, Google News · Bollywood
- Akshay Kumar-Saif Ali Khan Reunion Haiwaan Undercuts Even Tashan's Flop, reported from Google News · World entertainment, DNA India Entertainment, Pinkvilla
- Anne Hathaway's Verity Tracking For $30-40 Million US Opening, reported from Koimoi - Box Office
- Haiwaan Crashes To Rs 50 Lakh On Day Four, reported from Google News · World entertainment, The Free Press Journal, Google News · Bollywood
- Mirzapur The Movie Crosses Rs 200 Crore, Beats 3 Idiots' Net Tally, reported from 123telugu.com, Koimoi - Box Office
- Trade Pegs Nani's The Paradise For ₹100 Crore Opening Day, reported from 123telugu.com
- Resident Evil Zombies Its Way To Rs 8.50 Crore In Two Days, reported from Pinkvilla, Google News · World entertainment
- Resident Evil nets over eleven crore in its Indian opening weekend, reported from Pinkvilla, Google News · World entertainment
- Karthik Subbaraj's Dorothy Nearly Doubles Its Box Office On Day Two, reported from Filmibeat Tamil - Main Feed
- Prem Keetanu Flops With Just Rs 1 Crore Opening Weekend, reported from 123telugu.com
- Veer Pahariya's Prem Keetanu Collects Just ₹10 Lakh On Day 4, reported from The Free Press Journal
- Resident Evil Reboot Smashes Horror Record In China With $12.2M Opening Day, reported from Koimoi
- Drishyam The Conclusion Opens To Rs 62 Crore, Ajay Devgn's Biggest Ever, reported from Bombay Times, Rediff - Movies
- Jailer 2 Trailer Splits Fans, Still Eyes Kollywood Record, reported from IMDb, Koimoi
- Premada Oorali Box Office Collection Crosses Rs 28 Crore In 13 Days, reported from Pinkvilla, PINKVILLA
- Comrade Kalyan Day 1 Collection: 83 Lakh Net, 795 Shows, 50% Occupancy, reported from Telugu Filmibeat - Main
- Comrade Kalyan Day 1 Collections: Sree Vishnu’s Film Takes a Fair Start, Day 2 Bookings Sensational, reported from Telugu360 - Movie News, 123telugu.com
- Hanuman Ansh Beats Dangal & Mirzapur The Movie on Day 1, Now Crosses 1 Crore on Day 64, reported from Koimoi - Box Office, Koimoi
- Ranabaali’s Opening Weekend Will Decide If Vijay Deverakonda Still Has Box Office Clout, reported from Koimoi
- Drishyam The Conclusion Smashes Opening Weekend, Leaves Drishyam 2 Behind By 65%, reported from Bollywood Hungama - Box Office Analysis, Bollywood Hungama - Main Feed
This analysis was written by CutMirchi's automated Analysis Desk from the stories listed above and from our release tracker. Figures are as those reports gave them; trade figures are estimates.
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